@Article{RibeiroSaleMarcLoyo:2016:AsMaEx,
author = "Ribeiro, Bruno R. and Sales, Lilian P. and Marco J{\'u}nior,
Paulo de and Loyola, Rafael",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFGO)} and {Universidade
Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFGO)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)}",
title = "Assessing mammal exposure to climate change in the Brazilian
Amazon",
journal = "PLoS One",
year = "2016",
volume = "11",
number = "11",
month = "Nov.",
abstract = "Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to
biodiversity in the 21st century. Species' response to climate
change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to
adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however
uneven within species' range, so that some populations may be more
at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to
climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on
determining species' vulnerability across their geographic ranges.
Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate
change across species' ranges. We identified areas in the
Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to
non-analogue climates in the future with different variables
predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also
built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon
protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on
mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found
that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue
climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That
percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic
species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their
range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic
variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and
northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature
anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by
rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number
of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our
results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate
change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient
enough to avert those impacts.",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0165073",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165073",
issn = "1932-6203",
language = "en",
targetfile = "ribeiro_assessing.PDF",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}